Unless you can see the future, long-term business plans are usually just educated guesses. Markets change constantly, competitors pivot unexpectedly, what customers love today they may tire of tomorrow, and the economy goes up and down. So many things lie beyond human control. Planning sometimes only helps us feel more “at ease” — it doesn’t make things more certain.
1. To be accurate: a business plan is a business guess. A financial plan is a financial guess. Long-term strategy is also just a strategic guess. Understanding this, you’ll feel less pressure. Because when it’s a guess, being right or wrong is completely normal.
2. The problem arises when we treat plans as “gospel truth.” Then we do everything just because “we planned it,” even when external reality has already changed. At that point, the plan starts tying our hands, making it hard to adapt and causing us to miss opportunities.
3. In my view, “the ability to adapt” matters more than a beautiful plan. You must know how to be flexible, how to change direction when circumstances change. Sometimes you need the courage to say: “the old way no longer works — we must do things differently.”
4. Another irrationality is the timing of planning. You actually have the most information when you’re doing the work — not before you’ve started. Yet most plans are made before work begins — precisely when you have the least data to decide.
5. This doesn’t mean living recklessly. Thinking ahead is still necessary. But there’s no need to write out long elaborate plans only to leave them sitting there. In reality, many plans just sleep in a drawer, never opened again.
Instead of thinking too far ahead, think closer. Don’t plan for the whole year — plan for this week. Don’t try to paint the perfect picture — find the single most important next action and do it now. Make decisions as close to the moment of action as possible; don’t decide too early.
Working without a detailed plan can make you anxious. But blindly following a plan that no longer fits reality is far more dangerous.
P.S.: If you want to go to the beach, just get on the bus and go. Getting there and booking a room, buying a toothbrush, a razor… it’s still not too late.